- Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to expand her lead over Donald Trump in the coming days.
- If history holds, Harris should receive a slight convention-related bump.
- But Trump could easily erase her newfound lead.
Democrats are basking in their joy after a four-day party in Chicago. Vice President Kamala Harris is not satisfied with the good vibes alone.
"Now listen, we've got 75 days to go," Harris told reporters as she left the United Center on Thursday night after delivering her rousing acceptance speech. "Maybe for better and for worse, that's the way I am. That was good, now we've got to move on."
Party leaders repeatedly urged throughout the week that for all the positivity coursing through the party, harder times are ahead.
"Kamala Harris had a spectacular week, culminating a remarkable month," former senior Obama White House advisor David Axelrod wrote on X. "But this is a closely divided country and the race now will be a pitched struggle for every inch of terrain in the battleground states."
On Friday, Trump tried to reclaim some attention by touting Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s endorsement. Kennedy's polling has crashed over the summer, but Trump hopes that in potentially an extremely close race the noted vaccine skeptic's supporters would push him over the edge in key states.
"This is good news for President Trump and his campaign – plain and simple," Trump's pollster Tony Fabrizio said in a statement released by the campaign.
Kennedy vowed to try to take his name off the ballot in 10 swing states, though it remains uncertain if he will be able to do so in every effort. As election Law expert Derek T. Muller pointed out on X, Wisconsin only removes a candidate's name if they die — meaning some sort of zombie candidacy could continue.
Both major candidates are expected to return to the campaign trail in the days ahead before their first debate on September 10 in Philadelphia. It will be the first time Harris has ever met Harris and the first debate since President Joe Biden's disastrous June performance altered the race.
Republicans hope the arrival of debates will force Harris to confront her record. Harris has raced toward the center on key issues like healthcare and fracking, in an attempt to move beyond the progressive policy stances she took during her 2020 Democratic primary campaign.
Trump's campaign has tried to goad Harris into a sit-down interview, which would likely further explore her changing views. Still, thus far, she's focused on campaigning around the country — luxuriating in the free media attention her crowded rallies generate.
If history holds, Harris' momentum could stretch even further. Candidates traditionally received a post-convention bump in polls. According to RealClearPolitics' polling average, Harris has a narrow 1.5 percentage point lead in national polls. It's a sea change from Biden's consistent struggles but far from an insurmountable lead. In 1988, then-Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis had a 17-point lead in late July before Vice President George H.W. Bush overtook him and won the election.
Trump's advisors tried to caution that Harris would rise in the polls, deeming this period her "honeymoon." But so far, Trump has struggled to stick to a consistent attack on her. He's further reverted to form by undermining his message by claiming she's not really Black and feuding with fellow Republicans. On Thursday night, Trump tried to squash his beef with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, perhaps moving beyond a renewed feud that threatened to derail his chances in a key state.
The former president has also shaken up his campaign leadership, bringing former 2016 campaign manager Corey Lewandowski back to the official fold. Trump wants to find the magic that powered his 2016 upset, but it's not clear how successful that will be if he continues to stray from his message.
One of the largest concerns for Harris is that Trump still leads on the metrics that are often fundamental to the race. Biden remains fairly unpopular. A Gallup poll found 73% of are dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
There have been some signs that Harris has narrowed Trump's strength on the economy, but a recent ABC News-Washington Post-Ipsos poll found he still held a 9-percentage point advantage over Harris when voters were asked who they trusted to handle it more. Trump also had a 10-point advantage on immigration. The same poll found voters consider Harris vastly more favorable than Trump.
It is also worth noting that due to the sheer number of Americans who vote before Election Day, neither campaign can wait until November 5 to peak. Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important swing state, starts early voting on September 16, less than a week after the first debate.